Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a comprehensive and far-reaching sanctions regime has been imposed by Western governments, aiming to weaken Russia’s economy and political elite. Over two years later, these sanctions remain firmly in place.

The upcoming U.S. election will play a pivotal role in determining whether the current sanctions regime continues, is modified, or even lifted. But beyond domestic politics, several global factors must align before we see any significant movement towards the end of Russian sanctions. In this blog entry, we will explore what might need to happen for the sanctions regime to end, including the potential outcomes of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, shifts in global diplomacy, and the role of international economic interests.

1. The Role of the Ukraine Conflict

At the core of the sanctions regime against Russia is its ongoing military actions in Ukraine. The most immediate condition for the lifting or reduction of sanctions is a resolution to the conflict that is acceptable to both Ukraine and the international community. This could take the form of a formal peace agreement, a ceasefire, or other diplomatic solutions that indicate a significant de-escalation of hostilities.

However, the exact terms of such an agreement are critical. Western nations, led by the U.S. and European Union, are unlikely to lift sanctions without assurances that Russia respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and withdraws from occupied territories. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 remains a contentious issue, and any lasting peace will likely require addressing these territorial disputes, which complicates the path toward lifting sanctions.

Additionally, Ukraine and its Western allies have pushed for reparations and war crime accountability. If Russia agrees to such demands, the sanctions could be gradually eased. Conversely, continued aggression or unwillingness to compromise could solidify sanctions for the long term.

2. A Change in Russia’s Leadership or Political Landscape

Another key factor that could lead to the lifting of sanctions is a significant change in Russia’s political leadership or internal policies. The current regime, under President Vladimir Putin, has shown no signs of backing down, and the sanctions are aimed largely at crippling the financial networks supporting Putin’s government and his inner circle.

A leadership change could come through several possible scenarios:

• Internal political shifts: If domestic unrest or political opposition gains enough momentum within Russia to force changes in leadership, this could result in a more diplomatic stance toward the West and the potential for peace negotiations.
• Regime collapse: A more drastic and unlikely scenario could involve the collapse of Putin’s regime, either due to internal dissent, economic hardship caused by sanctions, or international isolation.

While regime change does not guarantee a shift in foreign policy, a new government more willing to negotiate with the West could lead to a recalibration of relations and a pathway to lifting sanctions. However, any new leadership would likely have to demonstrate a clear break from the policies that led to the sanctions in the first place.

3. Global Economic and Political Realignments

Geopolitical shifts beyond Russia’s borders could also influence the future of sanctions. Changes in leadership in Western countries or a realignment of international priorities might lead to different stances on the sanctions regime. For instance, if the political landscape in key sanctioning nations like the U.S., UK, or EU shifts toward leaders or governments that prioritize de-escalation over punitive measures, the sanctions could be eased as part of a broader diplomatic strategy.

Moreover, international organizations such as the United Nations or regional blocs might play a role in brokering agreements that could influence the sanctions landscape. If there is a global push for diplomatic solutions to address not just the Ukraine conflict but wider geopolitical tensions involving Russia, a more unified approach could lead to sanctions being lifted.

The global economic environment may also play a part. As the impact of sanctions ripples through global energy markets and economies, certain countries may seek to negotiate with Russia to stabilize these markets, which could lead to selective easing of sanctions in areas such as energy or trade.

4. Russia’s Economic Adaptation

Interestingly, the Russian economy has shown some resilience in the face of Western sanctions, as Russia adapts to new economic realities by strengthening its relationships with non-Western nations, including China, India, and other Global South countries. If Russia continues to develop these economic alliances, it may reach a point where the impact of Western sanctions is significantly diminished. In this scenario, the leverage that sanctions provide could erode, reducing their effectiveness as a tool of international pressure.

If Russia manages to build a parallel economic system that bypasses Western financial networks and trade routes, the motivation for maintaining the current sanctions regime might weaken, especially if they no longer achieve their intended economic or political objectives.

5. Humanitarian Considerations

The humanitarian toll of sanctions cannot be ignored, particularly if they begin to disproportionately affect ordinary citizens rather than the intended targets within Russia’s political and business elite. If sanctions contribute to a severe humanitarian crisis in Russia, there may be increasing international pressure to ease sanctions for humanitarian reasons, such as lifting restrictions on food, medicine, and other essential goods.

International bodies like the United Nations, human rights organizations, and non-governmental organizations could advocate for a partial rollback of sanctions if they argue that the suffering of civilians outweighs the political benefits of maintaining the punitive measures. This could lead to selective lifting of sanctions, even if the broader geopolitical issues remain unresolved.

6. Incremental Lifting of Sanctions

It is also possible that the sanctions regime will not end abruptly but will be lifted incrementally based on specific conditions being met by Russia. For example, Western governments may choose to ease certain sanctions related to trade or energy exports in exchange for partial troop withdrawals or other steps toward de-escalation in Ukraine. This kind of phased approach could serve as a diplomatic tool, encouraging compliance with international demands while keeping pressure on Russia to continue its retreat from aggressive policies.

Such an approach would allow for flexibility in international relations, with the option to reimpose sanctions if Russia fails to meet its obligations. However, it also presents the risk of “sanctions fatigue,” where countries become less inclined to maintain punitive measures over extended periods.

Conclusion

While the end of the Russian sanctions regime is contingent on several factors, the reality is that there is no quick resolution in sight. As long as the Ukraine conflict persists, and Russia’s leadership remains committed to its current policies, the sanctions are likely to remain a critical component of the West’s strategy. The potential for easing or lifting sanctions will depend on diplomatic breakthroughs, changes in Russia’s political landscape, or shifts in global economic and geopolitical priorities.

For now, the international community will continue to monitor developments closely, balancing the need to maintain pressure on Russia with the recognition that sanctions are only one part of a broader strategy to resolve a deeply complex conflict.